A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each authors two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
